John Huber 最新在 Graham and Doddsville 的訪談提到一點跟我在去年 12/31 總結的相似
“One of the mistakes that I've made over time is
being too conservative, I think. Conservatism, for
good reason, is considered a virtue in the value investing community. I'm a conservative investor by
nature, but there are drawbacks to being too conservative. I just read a note by my friend, Rob Vinall who runs a firm called RV Capital. He made a great point –banks that are aggressive when underwriting loans end up going bust, but so do banks that are too conservative over time,because they’ll miss writing the loans that are most profitable, which is needed to pay for the inevitable
mistakes. As investors, our goal should be accuracy when evaluating a business. You don't do yourself
any favors by being overly conservative at the expense of being accurate... You should demand a margin of safety over an accurate assessment of the business and its value, but your goal should not be to conservatively analyze the business, your goal should be to accurately analyze the business...I've noticed that a lot of my mistakes have come from when I've been conservative at the expense of accuracy, and this has carried a heavy opportunity cost over the years.”
價投的基因讓我們很保守，讓我們不太虧錢，但另一方面這個基因也限制了我們。我們的目標不是很保守的去評估公司，而是盡量正確的去評估公司。
Pabrai 在訪談的時候拿 Google 為例，他說當時他把 Google 的 Other bet 都當零，就當白送。但這樣就讓他對價格的區間守得很死，換句話說就是太保守。
平衡很重要，太保守、衝太快都不好
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